The 1980 election was both an apparently normal election, restoring the old pattern, as well as an exceptional one, because it came after India’s first non-Congress government, and a coalition government at that, at the national level. On the face of it, the 1984 verdict looked like a traditional Congress sweep too; the largest ever; 404 of 514 seats.
But look more closely at the other side, and what emerges is significant opposition vote shares in a large number of large and medium-sized states, usually centred on a principal opposition party. These numbers show a potential for a viable challenge by an opposition coalition, something that did in fact happen in the 1989 election.
Underlying those vote shares, a shrinking of the Congress’s umbrella social coalition in a large number of states; an umbrella that had been growing smaller since the late 1960s.
A party at its peak
The January 1980 election was held after a very recent double collapse — the collapse of the Janata Party government of Morarji Desai in July 1979 and, within weeks, the collapse of the Charan Singh-led Janata Party (Secular). It was also a year of economic downturn. The polls were held in a context in which a coalition government was seen to be unstable, and with a fragmented opposition to a Congress that was led by a strong leader, Indira Gandhi, who had earlier led the country for 11 years.
And so it was a sweep. Then Indira Gandhi was assassinated, by her bodyguards, while in office. Amid a surge of sympathy, her son Rajiv Gandhi strode to power. Quietly in the background, though, changing voteshares indicated that a shift was coming.
Rajiv Gandhi, Charan Singh, NTR: 5 key leaders
The five leaders who defined this period: Indira Gandhi, who stormed back to power, her political aura restored. Rajiv Gandhi, who succeeded his mother hours after she was assassinated. Charan Singh, one of India’s most consequential politicians that didn’t carry the name Gandhi. Jagjivan Ram, easily the tallest Dalit leader in India after the death of BR Ambedkar. And NT Rama Rao, the cine legend who launched the Telugu Desam Party in 1982 and, in assembly elections the following year, trounced the Congress and won an absolute majority.
Southern sojourn, Janata implodes, an assassination: 5 key moments
When Indira Gandhi visited Belchi, a nondescript village in Bihar, after eight Dalit people were murdered, she struck a chord. And if Belchi was the beginning of her political comeback after the 1977 drubbing, the 1978 byelection to Chikmaglur was its high noon. Meanwhile, the Janata coalition was done in by its ideological inconsistencies. Sanjay Gandhi died in a plane crash, prompting Indira Gandhi to induct Rajiv Gandhi into politics. And, at 9.30 am on October 31, 1984, Indira was assassinated by her bodyguards.
Victory, amid the shadow of change
Widespread instability and the fall of the Janata government saw Indira Gandhi storm back to power. Then, in the wake of her assassination, the Congress hit a high not yet matched in the Lok Sabha. But already, a shift was visible - exemplified by the 30 seats won by NT Rama Rao's TDP, making it the first regional party to become the principal national Opposition.
The limits of anti-Congress politics
Unlike in the 1977 election, there was no united opposition against the Congress in 1980. The Janata Party had splintered; the Congress returned to power. Then, in the wake of Indira Gandhi's assassination, the Congress made Lok Sabha history. That would be a rather misleading tally, though. Vote shares were falling. Something was shifting. India would, in fact, not have a single dominant party again for decades. And when it did, it wouldn’t be the Congress.
